Alan Greenspan has stated that the Internet is the engine ``driving'' the US economy. This engine has been working hard for a number of years, doubling and redoubling. But what happens when it begins to slow down?
This is not an idle question as data in Matrix Maps Quarterly 601 (published by MIDS http://www.mids.org) demonstrates. The sky may not be falling, but the growth rate is definitely slowing.
Comparing the resulting per-country host data for the period between January and July 1998 and 1999 reveals an interesting feature of the Internet. For nearly a decade, the number of Internet hosts doubled every year. From 1985 to 1997, the growth ratio was 2.176. The rate of change is now 1.5. The graph outlines the growth rate for 1969-1999.
In some ways, the more things change, the more they stay the same. The total number of Internet hosts continues to grow apace, but at a somewhat slower pace.
RIPE data, which is published monthly, shows that the European growth rate has been falling off as well.
That this would happen should surprise no one; clearly as any area begins to become saturated, growth slows.
— Peter H. Salus <[email protected]>